Samsung faces its biggest threat yet as Apple closes in on 2025's top spot

Samsung has led global smartphone sales for over a decade, but its dominance is now at risk. According to Counterpoint Research, Apple is on track to overtake Samsung this year and remain the world’s top smartphone maker through 2029.

Projections from the market research firm indicate that iPhone shipments are expected to grow by approximately 10% in 2025, while Samsung’s Galaxy line shipments are estimated to increase by only 4.6%. That’s a major gap for two companies often assumed neck-and-neck. On a global level, Apple is projected to grab around 19.4% of total smartphone shipments this year — a threshold not seen since 2011 (via Bloomberg).

Counterpoint Research says the real accelerant behind Apple’s climb is the new iPhone 17 lineup, which blends a redesigned chassis, a new custom A-series chipset built for on-device AI, and deeper cloud intelligence across iOS. The new models have resonated with buyers across both mature markets like the US and major emerging markets.
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Analyst Yang Wang said that this release, combined with the natural upgrade cycle of phones bought during the pandemic, pushed iPhone demand into higher gear. Other factors also contributed to Apple’s success, including a weaker dollar, reduced tension between the US and China, and increased demand in markets where price is a key consideration.
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So what does this mean for Samsung? The company is under a lot of pressure. Samsung still offers more models, covers a wider range of prices, and experiments more openly with form factors like the upcoming Galaxy Z TriFold. However, these strengths are not making as much of a difference as they used to.

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Foldable phones might no longer be enough to set Samsung apart, given the growing number of similar options. The company may need bigger breakthroughs across its flagship devices, including the Galaxy S series, rather than another round of iterative upgrades. Apple’s advantage is not about devices alone. It’s a broader ecosystem and strategic timing. The numbers show more than just strong iPhone sales; they point to a shift in consumer behavior, pricing leverage, and refresh cycles all aligning in Apple’s favor.

The ball is now in Samsung’s court. To regain momentum and keep its position, the next-generation Galaxy S26 needs to offer more than small improvements. It must make a real leap forward, or Samsung could lose its lead for years.