2026 is already shaping up to be a bad year to buy a new smartphone

If you’ve been waiting patiently to upgrade your phone in 2026, hoping the next generation of devices will be faster, cheaper, or offer better value, we’ve got some bad news for you. Smartphones will most likely get more expensive and less featureful in the coming year compared to what you can buy today.

According to new data from Counterpoint Research, global smartphone shipments are now expected to fall by 2.1% in 2026 due to rising memory costs. The bigger potential problem for buyers is pricing. The research firm notes that the average selling prices for phones are expected to rise 6.9% year over year, nearly double earlier estimates.

In a nutshell, phone makers would very likely charge more because they don’t have any other option, given the current market situation.

The biggest pain point is DRAM, and we’re sure you’ve already heard about the ongoing crisis. Prices for the memory your phone uses for multitasking, gaming, and keeping apps running smoothly are spiking thanks to high demand from big tech companies to fuel their AI data centers.

Counterpoint says DRAM price hikes have already pushed smartphone manufacturing costs up by about 25% for budget phones, 15% for mid-range models, and roughly 10% for premium phones.

And it’s not over yet. Another 10% to 15% cost increase is expected through the first half of 2026.

“In the lower price bands, steep price increases on smartphones are not sustainable,” said Senior Counterpoint Analyst Yang Wang. “And if cost pass-through isn’t possible, OEMs will start pruning parts of their portfolios, that’s actually what we are starting to see with significantly reduced volumes of low-end SKUs,” he added.

“Apple and Samsung are best positioned to weather the next few quarters,” continued Wang. “But it will be tough for others that don’t have as much wiggle room to manage market share versus profit margins. We will see this play out especially with the Chinese OEMs as the year progresses.”

So yes, phones are going to get more expensive, and yes, they’re probably going backwards when it comes to specs.

In an earlier report we covered, analysts warned that phones launching in 2026 are likely to ship with less RAM than 2025 models. 16GB RAM phones at the high end may nearly disappear, while 12GB and 8GB models could become much rarer. It’s expected that many brands will quietly revert to 8GB RAM for flagships and a modest 4GB for budget phones.

Essentially, if your current phone is still working fine, you might want to hold onto it for a bit longer or wait for the right deal to come along, rather than jumping on the next model just because it’s new.