The first Pixel 11 leak looks great, but it doesn’t tell us the most important thing

It’s hard to believe it, but Pixel 11 leak season is already kicking into full gear.

Yesterday, Android Headlines shared CAD renders of the baseline Pixel 11, and so far, it looks like a decent upgrade. Assuming this leak is accurate, Google is slimming the display bezels, tweaking the camera bar on the back, and making the Pixel 11 ever so slightly thinner.

We were expecting the Pixel 11 to be a fairly minor upgrade over the Pixel 10, and this leak cements that idea. While that’s fine, there’s still a looming concern I have with Google’s next phone. It’s not revealed in this leak, but as we lead up to the Pixel 11’s release later this August, it’s something we all need to be thinking about.

The one thing that will make or break the Pixel 11

If you’ve paid any attention to the tech world over the last few months, you’ll know that things are … not great. RAM and other components are at an all-time premium, other costs are rising, and prices for you and me are only going up.

We saw a prime example of this in February with Samsung’s Galaxy S26 series. Despite all three phones being very iterative upgrades over their predecessors, prices still went up — and by a lot in some cases. The baseline Galaxy S26 now starts at $900 instead of $800, while the Galaxy S26 Plus increased by a whopping $180 for its 512GB storage variant.

And it’s not just new gadgets that are getting more expensive. Last week, Sony increased the prices of all its PlayStation 5 consoles. A PS5 Pro that launched for $700 in November 2024 will soon cost $900. No tech company is immune to the current global economy, including Google. And that’s what worries me about the Pixel 11.

Let’s say this latest Pixel 11 leak is accurate, including its smaller bezel and slightly thinner design. It’s also safe to assume that the phone will be powered by Google’s upcoming Tensor G6 chipset, which will presumably be the first Tensor chip manufactured using TSMC’s powerful (and expensive) 2nm design.

That alone — and not accounting for any other camera, display, RAM, or storage upgrades — creates a very real scenario in which the Pixel 11 is more expensive than the $799 Pixel 10. It’s hard to say by how much this early on, but an $899 Pixel 11 wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.

That may sound like fearmongering this early in the Pixel 11 leak cycle, but I really don’t think it is. Samsung has already proved this with the Galaxy S26 price hikes, and Google itself already did so with the Pixel 10a earlier this year.

One of the best things about the Pixel 10a was that it retained the Pixel 9a’s starting price, but only because it was practically the exact same phone, right down to reusing the same outdated Tensor G4 chipset. If that’s what it took to launch the Pixel 10a without a price increase, it’s hard to imagine a future in which a Tensor G6-powered Pixel 11 launches without a higher price.

If that price hike does happen, the Pixel 11 will find itself in an extremely tough spot.

What does this mean for the Pixel 11?

Let’s say the Pixel 11 launches later this year for $899, potentially with the new Tensor G6 chip being its only notable upgrade. Will it truly be worth $400 more than the $499 Pixel 10a? For a lot of shoppers, myself included, that’s going to be a tough argument to make in the Pixel 11’s favor.

We also have to consider how this would position the Pixel 11 within the rest of the Pixel 11 series. If the Pixel 11 Pro also gets a higher price, which is very possible, a price hike for the base Pixel 11 would sting less.

But there’s also the possibility of the Pixel 11’s price increasing while the Pixel 11 Pro stays the same. Cheaper phones will and already have been hit harder by the RAM/component crisis. It’s easier for Google to keep a $999 phone at $999 than to keep a $799 phone at $799 — especially if both phones are getting a fancy new 2nm TSMC chip. If we were to see the Pixel 11 Pro remain at $999 while the Pixel 11 increases to $899, why wouldn’t you just spend an extra $100 for the Pro? The baseline Pixel wouldn’t make any sense.

I’m all for a Pixel 11 with those smaller bezels and thinner body, but those things ultimately don’t matter. Depending on how much more expensive the Pixel 11 is — and whether its Pro sibling is spared — that’s what will ultimately determine the success or failure of Google’s next smartphone.