The next big threat to RCS isn't another messaging app

Six to twelve months. That’s how long the GSMA believes RCS has to establish itself as a serious player in the next era of messaging, or risk watching AI-powered conversations and rival platforms define that future without it.

It’s an unusually urgent warning from the organization responsible for the messaging standard, especially as RCS adoption accelerates. But the concern isn’t whether people will continue sending messages. It’s whether those messages can do more than simply deliver information in a world where AI assistants are increasingly capable of acting on it.

In its latest report, GSMA Intelligence argues that RCS must evolve beyond one-way notifications into meaningful, two-way conversations.

RCS has a real opportunity, but the clock is ticking. With established platforms at scale and AI tools moving fast, the next 6–12 months will shape whether RCS leads the shift to conversational messaging or follows it.

That’s according to Emanuel Kolta, GSMA Intelligence’s lead analyst for network innovation and sustainability.

RCS has the reach, but does it have the intelligence?

The numbers tell an interesting story. At the start of 2026, people worldwide received about 3.2 billion RCS messages each day. Yet businesses sent just over 20 billion RCS messages throughout 2025, averaging roughly 0.4 messages per subscriber per month, compared with around 15 traditional business SMS messages.

There’s plenty of room to grow, especially with broader RCS adoption forecast to increase 25% in 2026 and another 38% in 2027. But connecting more phones won’t necessarily make conversations smarter.

Imagine an airline notifying you about a delayed flight. Instead of simply acknowledging the inconvenience, you could ask about alternative connections, change your booking, and receive an updated itinerary without leaving the conversation.

That’s the direction the GSMA envisions. United Airlines, IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Nespresso already demonstrate richer RCS interactions across travel assistance, customer support, and shopping. But the challenge is that WhatsApp already offers businesses interactive conversations, while AI assistants are raising expectations around context, accuracy, and actually completing tasks. A chatbot that merely presents buttons and scripted answers risks feeling outdated before it even reaches everyone’s phone.

We’ve already seen that limitation in Google Messages’ own business chat, which supports only preset responses rather than free-form questions. To address this, the GSMA says it’s working on additional capabilities to support emerging conversational use cases, including AI-powered interactions. However, it hasn’t announced which features will arrive or when.

That makes Kolta’s six-to-twelve-month window a warning about competitive momentum, not an official deadline for delivering new features.

RCS already has native phone integration, verified business identities, and growing interoperability. The bigger test is turning those advantages into conversations that remember context, respond intelligently, and accomplish something useful.

Otherwise, RCS could become very good at delivering notifications while the real conversations happen elsewhere.