It’s funny how Android tablets have turned the table against Apple’s iPad just when we’ve almost given up on that fight. After the Kindle Fire and Nexus 7’s booming hits, I think that no one can deny Android is on the rise. Apple might still be king of tablets, but both Amazon’s and Google’s 7-inchers rocked the Cupertino-based company’s throne. We hope this will spark a revolution of much bigger dimensions than we Android fans could have dreamed of a year ago.
However, while we know that the Nexus 7 was met with an almost unprecedented high degree of enthusiasm, we’re still in a blur about the tab’s actual sales. Nobody has even dared to come up with estimates, while predictions for the future have been entirely out of the question.
The editorial team over at Tech-Thoughts.net has been brave enough to venture a sales estimate for the Nexus 7, as well as a prediction for up to the end of the year. The figures are obviously to be taken with a grain of salt, but they are a bit more than just educated guesses, so they have to be at least acknowledged.
Starting from a Digitimes report about supplier shipments of touch panels for the Nexus 7 and using a bunch of other numbers and reports from the past, Sameer Singh has estimated that Google will be selling around 2.9 million Nexus 7 tabs by the end of Q3 2012.
Broken up by months, the Nexus 7 is thought to have sold in 600,000 units during July (at least since the 15th, when it actually started shipping), while August and September should boost that figure by 1.1 and 1.2 million respectively.
This part of the report sounds the most plausible, as it is (also) based on hard evidence. As for the Q4 2012 estimate, that’s a little less trustworthy, being based more on assumptions and suppositions.
If you don’t mind that, though, you should know that Google is expected to actually sell more Nexus 7 devices between the months of October and December. This is estimated at being between 3 and 5 million units shipped to tech users across the Globe, depending on a few very important factors, including the competition.
We’re almost certain that Apple and Amazon will make some strong pushes towards the 7-inch tablet market by the end of 2012, and both the new Kindle Fire(s) and the iPad Mini could seriously undercut the Nexus 7’s sales success.
Then again, Q4 is usually a thriving time for everybody involved in the tech world, with the holiday season pumping up sales. Taking both those things into consideration, Tech-Thoughts is estimating that Google’s sales figures for the Nexus 7 might be anywhere between 6 and 8 million during 2012 .
Now, is that any kind of record, you might ask. Far from it, especially if we are to compare those numbers with iPad sales. If we are to compare them with Amazon’s Kindle Fire sales figures, though, things might actually end up tied.
The Fire supposedly shipped in 3.9 million units during Q4 2011, its first fiscal quarter of existence, while Q1 2012 saw that figure drop to only 1.8 million. Summing those two numbers up, we get around 5.7 million unit sales for the Fire’s first two fiscal quarters, which would be below the Nexus 7’s estimated sales, even if they only hit the minimum prediction of Tech-Thoughts.
It is true that Amazon’s 7-incher was released on November 15, halfway into Q4 2011. But on the other hand, that meant the tablet was hotter than hot during the holiday season. That said, the Nexus 7 can easily beat the Kindle Fire’s sales figures, or at least they will end up tied. It’s likely that we’re dealing with another big hit from Android in its war with Apple.
Anyone care to comment on today’s estimates? Do you think the Nexus 7 will in fact sell in 6 million units by the end of 2012? More? Less?
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I wish the Nexus 7 was released in my country (Spain)… We have Play books and Play movies already!
We do our own bit of estimating using figures from multiple Digitimes reports and come up with similar, but slightly lower numbers:
All the Google needs to do is keep improving the OS so it is powerful and SMOOOOTH and hire a better marketing team and agency. Thats the ticket to increasing their tablet market share… MARKET! MARKET! MARKET! Same with the Galaxy Note 10.1 and the Asus Transformer lineup. They gotta market better.
I have a Nexus 7 and I didn’t even go to look at the Kindle Fire last year. Why anyone would buy a handicapped Android is beyond me. But a large part of the market is people who don’t really know the technology. The problem with the Nexus is NO TF SLOT. So the Nexus 7 may knock down the door for more usable no-name tablets.
N7 Will absolutely exceed 6M units and may be 8M units not only because it’s a much better product. Unlike Kindle N7 is launched in N. America, UK and Australia and may be more markets.
Nexus 7 will easily reach 6 to 8 million by end of 2012. More if there is NO iPad Mini (iBook).
Surface RT will reach 1 to 3 million by end of 2012. To reach 3 million Microsoft will have to do a lot of innovative schemes e.g. some of the schemes may be Angry Birds Surface RT (Surface RT that comes preloaded with ALL of Angry Bird’s franchise) or Star Trak “The Next Generation” Surface RT (Surface RT with more Flash memory and maybe even costing more that comes with ALL of Star Trak “The Next Generation” shows and movies). Surface RT numbers are pretty much independent of iPad or iPad Mini (iBook). REMEMBER THIS IS CONSUMER MARKET AND NOT THE ENTERPRISE MARKET. Lenovo is innovating very well in tablet space in the enterprise market so Microsoft does not have to worry about that end of the market that much.
I have both the kindle fire and a nexus 7. The nexus 7 is a far better tablet technically and far better games. The kindle fire has a lot of great content with amazon prime
I would go with the high end on the estimate: 8 million units in 2012.
I don’t see Amazon, Microsoft, or Apple changing those numbers.
They would have to come out with better hardware and a lower price – and that is not going to happen.
Big risk from Apple’s point of view is that 8 million people will be out there, knowing what a good implementation of Android is capable of – and IPad is not.