According to a recent blog post by stock market analyst Reggie Middleton (apparently an expert that also predicted the major financial crisis in Greece), Apple’s iPad will lose the tablet market crown in favor of Android tablets. A better phrasing of the same idea: Apple’s iOS will soon be dethroned by Google’s Android as the leading tablet OS. Currently sitting at only 10% behind the iPad, the Android tablet market share should be bigger than that of the iPad by the end of Q2 2012. Android is bound to take over the tablet market, as it did with the smartphone market a few years back.
While the original article (as well as a slew of other articles around the same theme) is centered around margin compression and other financial stuff, there are a few ideas that even geeks such as myself can see trough. Middleton claims that most of the media, as well as financial analysts are under total Apple mind control and are thus unwilling (afraid was the actual word used by Middleton) to spill a single word against Apple, or their products (note: we call these people Apple fanboys).
Case in point, a recent comparison article posted by CNET gave the tablet crown to the new iPad when compared against the ASUS Transformer Prime, something heavily contradicted by comments made by owners of the Transformer Prime. This is just one example out of the number of biased new iPad reviews that have popped out. In addition, the report in question claims that, according to several analysts, the new iPad wasn’t even close to duplicating the massive iPad 2 and iPad 1 sales.
Another thing that stroked my interest was the fact that Apple is spending more money for the various components inside the new, third generation iPad, as you can see in the chart below.
Considering the fact that Samsung, a major player in Android tablet manufactures the two most important components inside the new iPad (the retina display and the A5X CPU), doesn’t it make sense for the iPad will soon be dethroned? Even more, how can a single tablet maker stand up to an array of Android tablet OEMs that already provide a high degree of diversity in their hardware offers? Apple could not do that with their iPhone, they won’t be able to accomplish that with the iPad. It’s not about who gets first into the market, it’s about who plays better on the long run. As it turns out, Android has a better business model than the closed iOS ecosystem.
Although Android had arguably a slow start in the tablet area (many critics feel that Android 3.0 Honeycomb was unable to provide the experience users were looking for in a tablet), as the tablet and smartphone versions of Android have converged into Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich, by the end of 2012, it is likely that the main attraction of all iPad models (the number and quality of apps available) will be matched by ICS tablets. Hardware-wise, before the fourth iPad generation comes out (probably in Q1 2013), we’re bound to see a number Android tablets that will trash the new iPad in all conceivable sectors: be it price-performance ratio, raw performance, form factor, and maybe even display quality.
What do you guys think about this? Are there any Apple fanboys among the readers of this Android blog who are willing to contradict these expectations? Feel free to do so in the comment section below!