Android bound to dethrone the iPad and take over the tablet market, as it did with the smartphone market

April 2, 2012

ipad market share
According to a recent blog post by stock market analyst Reggie Middleton (apparently an expert that also predicted the major financial crisis in Greece), Apple’s iPad will lose the tablet market crown in favor of Android tablets. A better phrasing of the same idea: Apple’s iOS will soon be dethroned by Google’s Android as the leading tablet OS. Currently sitting at only 10% behind the iPad, the Android tablet market share should be bigger than that of the iPad by the end of Q2 2012. Android is bound to take over the tablet market, as it did with the smartphone market a few years back.

While the original article (as well as a slew of other articles around the same theme) is centered around margin compression and other financial stuff, there are a few ideas that even geeks such as myself can see trough. Middleton claims that most of the media, as well as financial analysts are under total Apple mind control and are thus unwilling (afraid was the actual word used by Middleton) to spill a single word against Apple, or their products (note: we call these people Apple fanboys).

Case in point, a recent comparison article posted by CNET gave the tablet crown to the new iPad when compared against the ASUS Transformer Prime, something heavily contradicted by comments made by owners of the Transformer Prime. This is just one example out of the number of biased new iPad reviews that have popped out. In addition, the report in question claims that, according to several analysts, the new iPad wasn’t even close to duplicating the massive iPad 2 and iPad 1 sales.

Another thing that stroked my interest was the fact that Apple is spending more money for the various components inside the new, third generation iPad, as you can see in the chart below.

ipad components price

Considering the fact that Samsung, a major player in Android tablet manufactures the two most important components inside the new iPad (the retina display and the A5X CPU), doesn’t it make sense for the iPad will soon be dethroned? Even more, how can a single tablet maker stand up to an array of Android tablet OEMs that already provide a high degree of diversity in their hardware offers? Apple could not do that with their iPhone, they won’t be able to accomplish that with the iPad. It’s not about who gets first into the market, it’s about who plays better on the long run. As it turns out, Android has a better business model than the closed iOS ecosystem.

Although Android had arguably a slow start in the tablet area (many critics feel that Android 3.0 Honeycomb was unable to provide the experience users were looking for in a tablet), as the tablet and smartphone versions of Android have converged into Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich, by the end of 2012, it is likely that the main attraction of all iPad models (the number and quality of apps available) will be matched by ICS tablets. Hardware-wise, before the fourth iPad generation comes out (probably in Q1 2013), we’re bound to see a number Android tablets that will trash the new iPad in all conceivable sectors: be it price-performance ratio, raw performance, form factor, and maybe even display quality.

What do you guys think about this? Are there any Apple fanboys among the readers of this Android blog who are willing to contradict these expectations? Feel free to do so in the comment section below!

Comments

  • Mts

    lol, 10 companies against one

  • Dawsonboby

    Yeah, as Mts said, 10 companies against one . . . and they’re still not catching Apple. The author of this piece sounds like just what he excoriates Apple fans for being: an Android fanboy caught up in heavy denial.

    Don’t get me wrong; I love my Android device (Sensation 4G), but give Apple their due: they set the bar, and Android is only chasing them at this point. In the future, well, who knows . . .

    • Anakin

      clearly you’re not getting the author’s point here. The point is that apple is only ONE company and that, given that they are not interested in allowing other tablets to have the iOS installed (as they should), android will clearly win the war in the long run. In other words, it’s because android is OPEN that it will overtake iOS in the near future.

      I’m sorry but i happen to agree with him because it makes sense. To me it’s not a matter of HOW android will win the war but WHEN.

  • sinfiery

    One OS versus another OS…

    This article is about the future of the industry, you can’t poke fun at the author of the article for things he isn’t stating, then when you get to the point he actually makes, your retort is, “well, who knows…” when he provides proof as to why he thinks he knows what will happen.

  • http://twitter.com/sgleon99 FCNYC

    how come the ASUS Transformer Prime is sold out at ever store i go to.
    I live in NYC, and i can’t find it anywhere.

    • Asdfasd

      I live in LA. I can’t find any for sale, and I can’t find anyone who is willing to buy one.

  • Tech_Advancement

    Maybe in ur dreams

  • Tech_Advancement

    Android OS is a garbage and it will never take over iOS period.

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/IAWRHXLKJFYZ2YEIFRXCBMGB4Q joe

      Live in that well happily. Unlike Mac OS, iOS is a shame for word OS. Why it is called an OS? iOS is a glorified feature phone system, which doesn`t operate, but dictate what to do.

      Android is a proper OS. You can navigate through the device in Android, and make your device in the exact way you wants.

      iOS is a bunch of apps at your disposal. You cannot have that luxury andoid have.

    • Anakin

      how about a little constructive opinion here? instead of just bashing android like a troll, why not tell us WHY you think it will “never take over iOS”?

      typical.

      • http://www.facebook.com/rustemz Rustem Zagretdinov

        The iPad situation is somewhat different to the iPhone, in that Apple’s profit margins from iPad sales are much lower. iPhone has always been marketed as a premium product, and this is likely to remain so; after all, Lacoste will never beat Gap in sales, but by no means does that mean people like wearing it less (and will not switch to it once they can afford it).

        Now, with the iPad, Apple’s philosophy is “get one to every home, and hospital, and school”, which obviously calls for lower prices, and we will see that as they are manufacturing previous generation models for the first time in their history.

        Turning back to OS, frankly, I do believe Apple have much more potential to make a better OS than anyone, except, probably, MSFT. I don’t believe in any existing technical advantage of Android OS for tablets (even less for phones) over iOS, but should one appear, they can fix it very easily, what with over a decade of experience making OS X and 70 bln of cash. I think if the OS war is to be won by one of them, it will be won for reasons very different from file system management and flash compatibility. Sure enough, Google have a huge power in online services, but they are making too many foes, I think, in the face of Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, possibly others, instead of cooperating with any one of them.

        What they’ve gotten themselves into is miles away from their original ideology, and for a company so young I think it can prove dangerous to lose their personality.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/PG-Morgan/100002821606596 PG Morgan

    I‘m sick of the too many VoIP’s in the market. They claim so much and the output is duuhhh! It doesn’t work for me though! Does anyone know a quality standard VoIP that runs great on my iPhone 3G? I’m using FriendCaller currently. They are better than any other in term of pricing. Offering great voice quality but cheap Calls to mobile phones and landlines. You might try as well http://fc.vc/infographic-fc

  • Graham Laight

    I agree with the article. I have also done some personal research: the iPad 3 is available off-the-shelf in some of my local shops. This wasn’t true for the iPad 2 for MONTHS after its launch!

    I genuinely find it mysterious as to why so much of the news media dismiss Android tablet computer market share as if it were nothing. I’ve heard it said that journalists are lazy – and this seems to be the most reasonable explanation.

  • Bob

    Android may take over tablet market share but they have a ways to go to match Apple’s ecosystem. I’m mainly talking about integration with other devices like speakers and car stereos, etc. I’m no fan of iTunes and think it sucks but the selection and quality of apps and content is still better than Android. I still prefer Android over Apple because of the customizations I can do and better integration of Google products I use (calendar, gmail, etc). In time I know the quality will improve to match their already superior technical specs. Now if Microsoft can step up its game so we have more competetion we’d really benefit as consumers.

  • Bruno Coelho

    People..people… hang on… you all forget that in this battle of words none of you will win… cause the only ones winning are this big companies like Apple, and samsung, and asus, and others…
    Why is that interesting if android is bigger that iOS or the other way arround?
    shouldnt the self user experience count more that numbers some one pass on?
    I’m a proud user of a iPhone, but im also a pride user of an Asus Transformer with android 4.0, and you know what, for now its the best for me… its my own personal experience that counts…and not the number.

    Be well, stay true…

    Bruno Coelho

  • Aleclinux

    What a biased article :p

    Oh, and Android still isn’t winning the tablet market share. Get trolled. Oh, and they don’t even dominate the phone market because, although there are more total Android phones, a bunch are just sitting in people’s drawers and trying to be sold for $5 on eBay while the iPhones still go for a lot on eBay.

    • Aleclinux

      The poster of the article is a total Google fanboy.

      “As it turns out, Android has a better business model than the closed iOS ecosystem.” “What do you guys think about this? Are there any Apple fanboys among the readers of this Android blog who are willing to contradict these expectations? Feel free to do so in the comment section below!”

      Say that all you want, but Apple is doing way better with iOS than anyone else. That’s why they became the most valuable company in the world.

  • Gatortpk

    I figured this article was written too soon, and didn’t account for the 3rd Generation iPad in Q1 2012. Check out this exact graph with Q1 2012 added, it makes the title of this article look so incorrect:
    Segmentation of the Tablet Market

    This is even from http://www.androidauthority.com, 6 weeks later.

  • android fan

    I think Samsung needs to step up in the tablet market.They shouldn’t be afraid of copying and borrowing the design of the Galaxy s2 over to their tablets.Until a sexy new tablet comes along,the i-pad will still be the “king” of the tablets.