According to Strategy Analytics‘ latest research, smartphone sales in the U.S. dropped by 5 million, down to 24 million in the 2nd quarter of the year. The reasons for this sharp decline in smartphone sales include:
“A volatile economy, maturing penetration of smartphones among contract mobile subscribers, and major operators tightening their upgrade policies to enhance profits [...].”
It also seems iOS surged to 33% from 23% a year ago, by stealing an extra 10% from the others – half from Android, which dropped from 61% to 56% and half from Blackberry (now less than 7%) and “others” (WP7, etc).
The drop in Android sales happened before the Galaxy S3 launched in the U.S., which means Android will probably go over 60% again in Q3, and then will probably drop again in Q4 when the next iPhone will be launched. It is possible that in the future Android might not be able to maintain its 60% market share in the U.S., and will perhaps have a hard time staying over 50% as well.
Now that the iPhone is available from almost all American carriers, the iOS and Android market shares will probably tend towards becoming equal in the future, or perhaps we’ll see Android’s market share become only slightly bigger than iPhone’s market share. But for now this still remains pretty unpredictable, as we don’t know how people will react to the new iPhone. If they find it way too similar to the previous 2 generations, their interest might drop, and the iPhone’s market share might stagnate or even drop.
RIM seems to be in a terrible position with Blackberry, which is now at 6.5% market share, and will probably continue to drop by the time the company even gets to launch its new BB10 operating system. Even my suggestions for them might not work anymore at that point.
This is why when you get disrupted by new technologies, you need to act years before they start affecting you financially, otherwise you get to a point where it’s too late to do anything about it. This is a lesson that both Nokia and RIM are learning the hard way because they refused to acknowledge for years the change in the market.