If you still don’t think Android is the future not only of most high-end smartphones, but also of most low-end ones, where Nokia has historically dominated, then this should throw some cold water on you. A new research shows Android is now on 47% of all new smartphones in UK, where Symbian has only 7.2% left, which is down 19 points from last year’s 26% market share. One fifth of the UK smartphone market, or 70% of Nokia’s market in smartphones gone in one year. Just like that.
Over the years when Nokia started losing market share to Android and iPhone, th argument has always been “but Nokia is still the largest smartphone manufacturer” or that “it still dominates the poor countries”. Nokia have already lost their crown in smartphones last quarter to Apple and Samsung, and they’ve lost the smartphone OS crown with Symbian by the end of last year, when Android first surpassed Symbian. And they are quickly losing their market share in countries where they’ve been huge market leaders, like India.
Since Android clearly dominates smartphones now with about one out of every 2 smartphones being old around the world being an Android smartphone, and since all feature phones are being replaced by smartphones, it’s pretty clear where all this is going for Symbian and Nokia. As smartphones are getting cheaper and cheaper, most people will end up buying an Android smartphone from a company different than Nokia, and instead of Nokia’s less capable feature phones. It’s only a matter of time before Android replaces Symbian at every level.
The fact that Nokia have basically announced the death of Symbian themselves earlier this year because of the deal with Microsoft, the decline of Symbian has actually been accelerated. This has made the company weaker and weaker financially with each passing quarter. They might find out that by the time they’re launching their first WP7 phone, they might not have enough money to push it strongly themselves.
One thing is for sure, even if Nokia succeeds in pushing WP7 to 20% by 2015, as predicted by Gartner (a claim which I find completely bogus and random), they would still own only a part of that, while the other manufacturers like HTC and Samsung will get the rest. So Nokia’s old days of being the largest phone manufacturer, and dominating the market, are not going to come back.